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I was waiting for your dates before pointing you at Google flights, per the link above. I didn't go through the ITA matrix, but going through Google flights I was able to click through to Qatar Airways and get a definite £532 for your flights, although the return is a day earlier on 01/09/17.

All flights for next Summer should be on sale, since they are sold a rolling 330 days in advance. So, assuming your return is on or before about mid-September (is that Summer?), then you should be able to book now. What are your dates, and is it London - Denpasar?

It is, as you suspect, a load of bollocks. Flight prices change all the time for any number of reasons.

I've seen people get BA direct flights for £400-500. Economy, obviously, but if you don't mind that... It's the usual thing with flights, I think: check often and pounce when you see something that suits. Maybe set up fare alerts on Kayak etc and consider 1-stop indirects if you're not overly...