Mistakes I have made so far:
1. thought I was staking £5 plus a £5 free bet when in fact I was only staking £5 free bet
2. didn't press 'use free bet' when staking £5
3. Got the wrong HT/FT type bet on the exchange that didn't cover my backed bet.
4. placed a back bet and then realised the bet...
So despite 1 error in laying the wrong type of HT/FT against the back I'd made (bit confusing), I do appear to be at least £10 in profit, probably £20 had I not made the error (I lost £10, and a £10 free bet - so lost out the chance for profit too).
Sort of getting it now. Slowly but surely...
How would the bookies know you're playing matched markets? Maybe Bozza too? i.e. how would William Hill know you're laying with Befair if you're backing with them? Doesn't it just look a normal bet to them and losing and winning at random?
It's gone already so I've been caught out laying against a HT/FT with the back bet disappearing from the other exchange before I placed it. Not sure whether to cash out the lay and just accept the small hit.
So when a match is 100% or above, you basically cannot lose? As your back and lay bets are such that you would be in profit, I'm getting that right?
Smarkets against betfair there are currently a couple of matches at 133% and 121%. Seems too easy!
I'm going to give it a dabble, I spend enough time on here, I may as well put into something else that can make money! Got Ladbrookes and William Hill matched offers running on tonight's games. I sort of get it, but not quite...
The chances are the same as any other combination of red and black. We like to see patterns so in our mind 15 reds in a row is more unlikely than a random pattern of reds and blacks but in reality each roll of the ball is a fresh start and each time it is just as likely to land on a red or a black.