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I think the main difference this time is that a Trump victory is seen as a credible outcome; last time Clinton was assumed to have an open goal. Anti-trump campaigning by groups such as the Lincoln Project has been ramping up for months now and is really brutal.

I disagree. Clinton was not dull and very polarising and unpopular amongst a large number of Americans. This resulted in many people that would have normally voted democrat either voting for an independent or not at all. Biden with Harris is a fairly safe, if dull, candidate that isn't Trump.

Polling of people planning to vote for Biden has been fairly consistent in their reasoning for this. For most of them, all that matters is that he's not Donald Trump.