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Ok maybe I went a bit far in saying it was the 'whole point': obviously there are much more complex and accurate models being used by sports traders. I'm very much not saying that if you bet using xG you would make money: there are a lot of weaknesses in the model as I pointed out in my first...

They've been shown to not be complete crap. The whole point of xG is that it is a better indicator of future form than actual points. The amount of chances you generally concede or create are much more important long term traits than whether you happen to win. You don't have to pay attention...

Expected goals and points are very useful tools, but I think most of the commonly quoted models are not very good at certain key aspects of modelling how good a chance really is. One of the key ones I think is that they are bad at determining blocks, which is basically our whole defensive...