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Well ... ended on 4.9. Met Office got the forecasts wrong. Plenty of sunshine to lift the daily average. Still 2nd worst Q1 for my panels.

Nah, I wasn't expecting to get much (if any).

Been tracking output from my solar panels since I had them installed 9 years ago. This January - March quarter is currently looking to be easily the worst Q1 in that time period. Average for Q1 over the last 8 years has been 5.75 units per day (and that's with last year being the first where it...

Yes, until the Gulf Stream breaks down. At which point our weather could change significantly. But no one really knows if or when that could happen.

Yep, winter is pretty much done this year now (unless something drastically swings). We'll get some colder spells, but I think any real chance of snow down here is now gone unless something really special happens outside the current forecast range. Netweather has now moved on - they've got a...

Yeah, I know there's nothing doing for us this week. More talking about hinted at possibilities for longer term, some of which really depend on what direction this week's low takes after it passes through the UK. Which up until now doesn't look like the models have a good handle on. Suspect the...

Probably for a while, but there's a risk (a growing risk with every year that passes) that the Gulf Stream ocean current could break down as a result of climate change. If that happens, the UK potentially gets plunged much, much colder. It's the Gulf Stream that moderates our winter temps by...

I wouldn't be betting on anything either way at this point. GFS is flip-flopping. There's a lot still to play out in terms of how the low pressure coming through Thursday goes - exactly what track it takes *after* hitting the UK is really important and the models just can't seem to agree / make...

Models have been sniffing around for something colder for a few days. Netweather folks have been eyeing it all with caution, as it's only been teasing possibilities. Last I checked on Sat night it was looking likely it would miss us down here in the south east and most of the snow interest would...

There's enough of winter left for the pattern to change and still deliver some more cold. Next two weeks looks like it'll be very much on the mild side, but beyond that isn't set yet. Edit to add: both the Netweather and Met Office long range text forecasts are suggesting first half of Feb will...

A lot of the acronyms / concepts discussed will have a little dotted line underneath them. On a laptop, hover your mouse and it'll provide either the de-acronymed full name. You can then take that away to Google and search it up.

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99793-model-output-discussion-cold-spell-ending-what-next/ I don't read all of it (impossible to read all of it), but it's always worth a skim read of the most recent 2 pages morning and evening. Also: right on cue, Met Office have now officially named...

If you read the thread on Netweather, it's not click bait. A lot of caution in what they're saying. It's all in the day 10 and beyond model charts, which is a timeframe they refer to as "fantasy island" because you can't trust it. What they're looking at is trends and other longer term...

-7 at 0830 this morning, according to the car. -6 by the time I finished school run a little before 0900. Absolutely beautiful crisp, clear morning. Just wish we could have had just one snow-bearing system pass through to take advantage of how cold it's been. The duck pond down the hill from us...

Our bigger worry over the next week is the possible storm heading our way. It'll start to warm up over the weekend, storm next week ... and now the netweather geeks are starting to talk about the possibility that cold / snow could be back on the cards for end of Jan/early Feb because the models...

-6 on the car dash this morning in Uckfield.

Indeed. Roll forward 24 hours and it all (Feb cold) seems a lot less likely now. But this far out, it'll continue to flip-flop around for a while. The models do all have a tendency to want to "correct" back to the "normal" patterns too rapidly.

Also worth noting that longer range, it looks like a chunk of Feb could be cold as well (according to the more well respected long termers on Netweather, the background signals are right for a colder-than-average Feb). So if we miss out this time, it hopefully won't be the last chance of snow...

The overall pattern is highlight suggestive ... exactly what we get, still up in the air. I think it's fairly certain at this point that Scotland is in for some pretty cold weather next week. Exactly how far south (and how much snow with it) that gets is TBC. The M4 snow shield might manifest...

Too many posters over on Netweather never seem to learn that the models are just that: models. They aren't "forecasts". That's why all of the models actually have multiple runs, and they never ever produce the same results from one run to another. It only takes one small change early in the run...