[Albion] The election up all-nighter

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Pavilionaire

Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
30,696
Machiavelli said:
RE your point 1, you're talking about Corbyn in 2019, but on a fairly similar programme, Corbyn did surprisingly well in 2017
RE your point in your previous post about the Conservatives being destroyed. I disagree. They've been around for 300 years and been in office for about 200 of those. They've had convulsive events in the past that people say they'd never recover from (eg Poor Laws, Home Rule), and they have done. Also factor in: 1, they're the party of the establishment which facilitates them; and ii, the opposition parties are split which favours them in FPTP electoral contests. They'll be back as a credible force to the electorate. Wouldn't expect it to happen in the next parliament, but most likely by the one after.
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Corbyn did OK in 2017 but then he was up against May and a Brexit mess. I don't think he was ever a real prospect as PM, and the shoeing he took 2 years later put him in his place.

Yes, the Tories have been around for ages but for 60-odd years they were split by the question of Europe which got progressively bigger and more divisive. Now that issue has led to their support being as low as it has ever been in my 55 years.

They have literally purged their party of any pro-EU MPs and have facilitated the creation of UKIP / Reform, there is also a real possibility of a United Ireland before the Tories even have a chance of getting back into power.

The British people don't like extremes, so in the same way they don't like a very left Labour Party they equally won't go / aren't going for a very right Tory Party. Reform and the Tories are fighting over an increasingly small political hunting ground, I don't see there is room for both of them.

And there will not be an second opportunity to "Get Brexit Done" so if the Tories look to subsume Reform then they will leave a huge gap of disenfranchised, pro-EU, right of centre voters without which they cannot hope to win a majority.
 




Pavilionaire

Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
30,696
beorhthelm said:
not so much, the numbers say the economy isn't doing nearly as badly as the commentary. not because of anything much Conservatives are doing mind, just the general global macro is turning upward. Germany just avoided recession, US looks steady, inflation fallen, interest rates likely to start falling before autumn. Starmer will have fair bit of room from green shoots of recovery, likely to spend the fruit on services rather than tax cuts.

my theory, this is why Sunak is holding on, to take some credit for the turnaround, maybe get in an autumn statement with some good news and tax cuts to boot.
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It will be interesting to see what happens to inflation, given the National Minimum Wage has just gone up by 10% and EU import checks have just come in that will see further increases on prices. I'm expecting inflation to flatline and so this could prevent cuts in interest rates.

Boat people numbers will also increase as the weather improves, so that will hurt Rishi throughout the summer. The government thinks Rwanda flights will be a deterrent, but have they factor in the prospect of a more sympathetic Labour government as being an attraction? Rishi must be so desperate for that first flight to take off.
 


Thunder Bolt

Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Aug 18, 2009
65,753
Beside the seaside, beside the sea
Giraffe said:
Khan in trouble? Hard to believe but would be sensational if true.
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There are lots of accounts posting rumours of a Hall victory, but this happened before with Shaun Bailey.
Best to wait until the actual count, imo.
 


A1X

A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
18,151
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Giraffe said:
Khan in trouble? Hard to believe but would be sensational if true.
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No votes are being counted until tomorrow, so surprising if true
 






Beach Hut

Beach Hut

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 5, 2003
72,014
Living In a Box
Lush said:
Labour win control of Adur District Council from Conservatives.
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Conservatives totally complacent in Adur and deserved this, now Laughton standing down can see a Labour MP at the next General Election
 


K

knocky1

Well-known member
Jan 20, 2010
12,993
Bozza said:
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I read it was close too. Enough of the educated inner London Labour supporters unhappy with the party line on supporting killing in Gaza apparently and the suburbs unhappy with ULEZ apparently.
Adam feels better with the turnout figures.

Screenshot_20240503-203654~2.png
 


A1X

A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
18,151
Deepest, darkest Sussex
Most of this seems to be being driven by The Sun, which is interesting
 




A1X

A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
18,151
Deepest, darkest Sussex
 


Zeberdi

Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,935
Things maybe changing in the Conservative stronghold of Norfolk

The County has elected a Labour PCC (not a role I support particularly) (edit: a County wide win in any election for the first time in decades). In a County that has only one Labour MP and includes Liz Truss’s SW Norfolk constituency, perhaps a litmus test of a small swing in the electorate up here?
labourlist.org

Police and crime commissioner election results: Full list of nine Labour gains - LabourList

Police and crime commissioners (PCCs) manage aspects of policing in each region. Labour held its PCCs in Wales,…
labourlist.org labourlist.org

There were no County Council Elections this year but Labour remain the largest Party with no overall majority on Norwich City Council (South Norwich is traditionally the only Labour stronghold in Norfolk) losing 2 seats to the Greens
 
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Weststander

Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
64,500
Withdean area
Zeberdi said:
Things maybe changing in the Conservative stronghold of Norfolk

The County has elected a Labour PCC (not a role I support particularly) for the first time in decades. In a County that has only one Labour MP and includes Liz Truss’s SW Norfolk constituency, perhaps a litmus test of a small swing in the electorate up here?
labourlist.org

Police and crime commissioner election results: Full list of nine Labour gains - LabourList

Police and crime commissioners (PCCs) manage aspects of policing in each region. Labour held its PCCs in Wales,…
labourlist.org labourlist.org

In the upcoming GE, I’ll be supporting Terry Jermy LAB in his stand against Liz Truss - but with a £5,000 campaign budget, it will be on a shoestring. However, he’s an ex-mayor, a local ward Councillor (District and County) and very popular locally, so I believe if anyone can bounce Liz Truss he can - the main concern is the Greens and Independent (an ex-Tory) splitting the Votes. Jermy has been an island of red in a sea of blue since 2017

View attachment 181783

There were no County Council Elections this year but Labour remain the largest Party with no overall majority on Norwich City Council (South Norwich is traditionally the only Labour stronghold in Norfolk) losing 2 seats to the Greens
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Hasn’t Labour often held the Norwich parliamentary seats in modern times eg Ed Balls?
 




N

NorthstandRacoon

Well-known member
Aug 1, 2017
1,953
Withdean. Just behind the theatre of trees.
Can I just say, I am LOVING this Tory demise. By far the worst of the worst when it comes to how low politics can get, the last nearly 10 years have been horrendous and at times, I've been embarrassed to be British, when I'm usually very proud. But the tide is turning, and it's coming back to me, and fast. Thank GOD our electorate are waking up and smelling the coffee. We need a centrist party, not a right or left, to steady the ship. Labour are that. I will still be voting Green as Climate Change is our biggest threat to humanity, I strongly believe that, plus it's either them or Labour, here in Brighton. I wish I could do more to be better for the cause, but without radical change, and with my job and lifestyle, it's very difficult. Eating fine, but travel is the hardest. Politicians need to push for radical change and educate the masses more than we already are. Anyway, off topic there. The sooner that bunch of scum are out, the better. Imagine ridiculing the poor, needy and sick, cutting and stripping our services like healthcare and benefits for the disabled, penalising homelessness, LIEING about green targets and LIEING about many many other things, and whilst we at it, those who are coming here for a better life, it's been disgusting. GOOD RIDDANCE.
 




Zeberdi

Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,935
Bodian said:
Good news overall. Just one point though - the role of PCC has only actually been around since 2012...
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Yes, I meant it was the first time in decades that Labour came first in a County wide election. Edited my post to make it more clear 👍
 
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clapham_gull

clapham_gull

Legacy Fan
Aug 20, 2003
25,470
A1X said:
Most of this seems to be being driven by The Sun, which is interesting
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It's not just The Sun. Turnout has been low and you've basically got two Londons, inner and outer.

I like many have believed the polls, but I was reading tonight how incredibly difficult it is to poll London to any degree of accuracy. Somewhat unique I understand.

Throw in the change in the change on voting system. I suspect that what has freaked out Labour HQ which has leaked to the press as they have a model based on certain factors.

Doesn't mean Khan will lose, just that they aren't as sure as they were before.
 




Zeberdi

Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,935
Bodian said:
Good news overall.
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Yes it is actually very significant if you know the electorate up here - Norfolk has been a bastion of Conservative support for years and latterly (large rural, agricultural County) - As said, this is the first time in decades that Labour has won any kind of County wide election - I only suggest it’s a litmus test of a small swing and nothing more because the turnout was really low.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
50,861
Faversham
NorthstandRacoon said:
Can I just say, I am LOVING this Tory demise. By far the worst of the worst when it comes to how low politics can get, the last nearly 10 years have been horrendous and at times, I've been embarrassed to be British, when I'm usually very proud. But the tide is turning, and it's coming back to me, and fast. Thank GOD our electorate are waking up and smelling the coffee. We need a centrist party, not a right or left, to steady the ship. Labour are that. I will still be voting Green as Climate Change is our biggest threat to humanity, I strongly believe that, plus it's either them or Labour, here in Brighton. I wish I could do more to be better for the cause, but without radical change, and with my job and lifestyle, it's very difficult. Eating fine, but travel is the hardest. Politicians need to push for radical change and educate the masses more than we already are. Anyway, off topic there. The sooner that bunch of scum are out, the better. Imagine ridiculing the poor, needy and sick, cutting and stripping our services like healthcare and benefits for the disabled, penalising homelessness, LIEING about green targets and LIEING about many many other things, and whilst we at it, those who are coming here for a better life, it's been disgusting. GOOD RIDDANCE.
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Yes. Yes you can.

I'm probably twice your age but I salute your imperative :thumbsup:

The caveat is that when Labour get in they have to be able to pursue a future view without driving the gammon back into the arms of the charlatans and getting booted out in favour of Patriots promising tax cuts in 5 years.

The art of the possible and all that....
 


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