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[News] Hamas/Gaza/Israel



Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
21,687
Brighton
I’m not convinced Iran had hoped to achieve anything more than spread fear and terror of potential escalation with such a limited retaliation.
From what I heard on the wireless (5Live) from a defensive expert, it seems Iran had given prior detailed warning on what was going to happen. The operation to bring down the weapons was vast, complex and needed a lot of organisation and planning to reach a success rate of 99%.

It’s probable that the allies knew how many weapons were being sent over, launch sites and launch times. Pretty smart by Iran and I’m convinced that they don’t want an escalation and were happy that there were no casualties that would have meant a military response was certain.

Note that the U.N, U.S and U.K are all calling for de-escalation. If the allies were not given hugely detailed forewarnings of this and there had been casualties, I suspect the U.S would be up for some revenge strikes on Iran.
 




Hotchilidog

Well-known member
Jan 24, 2009
8,733
From what I heard on the wireless (5Live) from a defensive expert, it seems Iran had given prior detailed warning on what was going to happen. The operation to bring down the weapons was vast, complex and needed a lot of organisation and planning to reach a success rate of 99%.

It’s probable that the allies knew how many weapons were being sent over, launch sites and launch times. Pretty smart by Iran and I’m convinced that they don’t want an escalation and were happy that there were no casualties that would have meant a military response was certain.

Note that the U.N, U.S and U.K are all calling for de-escalation. If the allies were not given hugely detailed forewarnings of this and there had been casualties, I suspect the U.S would be up for some revenge strikes on Iran.
Pretty much this. Iran had to be seen to be doing something, but they have no interest in starting a full scale war, Biden has no interest in one either. Israel get to claim the "win", Iran makes it point and I suspect that Netanyahu's conversations with Biden may become slightly more tetchy.

In other news, settler thugs continued to rampage through the West Bank and no-one bats an eyelid.
 


Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,913
From what I heard on the wireless (5Live) from a defensive expert, it seems Iran had given prior detailed warning on what was going to happen. The operation to bring down the weapons was vast, complex and needed a lot of organisation and planning to reach a success rate of 99%.

It’s probable that the allies knew how many weapons were being sent over, launch sites and launch times. Pretty smart by Iran and I’m convinced that they don’t want an escalation and were happy that there were no casualties that would have meant a military response was certain.

Note that the U.N, U.S and U.K are all calling for de-escalation. If the allies were not given hugely detailed forewarnings of this and there had been casualties, I suspect the U.S would be up for some revenge strikes on Iran.
Spot on - that was my thinking entirely.

Just hoping now that Israel doesn’t respond in attacking Iran directly - can’t see Netanyahu launching an open attack without the backing of the US but they may try the clandestine approach - so that’s something to keep an eye on. Iran will win this round imo, they forewarned, acted with restraint and given teeth to a deterrent should Isreal think of responding with a direct attack

Interesting articles

First - Israel’s ‘Shadow war’ with Iran - clandestine and not so clandestine


And from the NYT - How Iran’s attack has changed the dynamics in the ME

 


Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,913
ISRAEL RESPONSE TO IRAN ATTACK

Israel has launched missile strikes on Iran in response to last Saturday’s attack.




As far as ‘disarming‘ Israel to protect Gazans, Israel would be existentially vulnerable to the ‘Axis of Resistance’, more so now than ever before - Netanyahu has seen to that more than any other leader in Israel’s history. The West are hogtied by an alliance that is 75 years old but it is that alliance that is enabling Netanyahu to escalate and broaden the current conflict in the ME.
 
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Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,913
Both Israel and Iran now downplaying Israel’s attack last night suggesting that diplomacy in the region is having an impact on both Countries for the time being. A stepping back from the precipice for now or at least the rhetoric is less escalatory.
 




Boys 9d

Well-known member
Jan 3, 2012
1,798
Lancing
I assume to show their neutrality the US and UK aircraft shot down some of the Israeli drones?
 


Tom Hark Preston Park

Will Post For Cash
Jul 6, 2003
70,376
Both Israel and Iran now downplaying Israel’s attack last night suggesting that diplomacy in the region is having an impact on both Countries for the time being. A stepping back from the precipice for now or at least the rhetoric is less escalatory.
You get the distinct feeling that both sides are now just lobbing symbolic gesture amounts of weaponry at each other. Middle East equivalent of opposing football fans luzzing rubber matting at each other in Brighton station. Long may it last 🤞
 


Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,913
You get the distinct feeling that both sides are now just lobbing symbolic gesture amounts of weaponry at each other. Middle East equivalent of opposing football fans luzzing rubber matting at each other in Brighton station. Long may it last 🤞
Yes, certainly seems like it - bizarre way to de-escalate - retaliate with less and less weapons until they stop - bit of a risky strategy though!
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
50,224
Goldstone
There seems to be quite an entrenched view in some quarters, that the West Bank is a legitimate part of Israel. I guess when a country has occupied land for a generation, built homes and set up businesses on it, it becomes harder to convince subsequent generations that this wasn’t their land in the first place 🤷🏻‍♂️

Like Russia occupying Ukraine, it should never be accepted.
 








Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,913
Well this is an interesting development and the first of its kind - Blinken said on Friday the US is considering imposing cuts to Israel’s orthodox fighting force that operates in the West Bank for violating human rights, which has the support of the Israeli Labour opposition leader who says they are ‘killing Palestinians for no real reason’ - now Netanyahu says he will ‘fight against any sanctions’


It remains to be seen how Netanyahu thinks he can stop the US applying sanctions - the relationship is becoming decidedly scratchy - Blinken clearly thinks that the US not Netanyahu should be driving policy in the ME.
 


:J)

Active member
Jul 7, 2003
625
Brighton
Well this is an interesting development and the first of its kind - Blinken said on Friday the US is considering imposing cuts to Israel’s orthodox fighting force that operates in the West Bank for violating human rights, which has the support of the Israeli Labour opposition leader who says they are ‘killing Palestinians for no real reason’ - now Netanyahu says he will ‘fight against any sanctions’


It remains to be seen how Netanyahu thinks he can stop the US applying sanctions - the relationship is becoming decidedly scratchy - Blinken clearly thinks that the US not Netanyahu should be driving policy in the ME.
We hear a lot about the US government's 'frustration' with Netanyahu but it doesn't prevent them sending weapons and ever increasing amounts of $$$ (a huge $26 million announced on Friday). It's just fiddling around the edges and not addressing the crucial problem... the US's continued funding of the onslaught.
Turn off the tap!
 


:J)

Active member
Jul 7, 2003
625
Brighton
Meanwhile mass graves have been discovered in the grounds of the Nasser Medical Centre in Khan Younis with over 180 bodies.

Here's Sky News reporter posting about it on X:


Expecting this to be headline news on all the channels, but...
Animated GIF
 




Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,913
We hear a lot about the US government's 'frustration' with Netanyahu but it doesn't prevent them sending weapons and ever increasing amounts of $$$ (a huge $26 million announced on Friday). It's just fiddling around the edges and not addressing the crucial problem... the US's continued funding of the onslaught.
Turn off the tap!
Yep - many people feel the same way tbh and in an ideal world maybe, if Israel was not also surrounded by Iran’s proxies that are ongoing threat to her security (and will be until the Palestinians have an independent State imo). Until then token gestures of sanctions are probably all we are going to get.

The US/UK still recognises Israel’s right to protect herself and supplying weapons has always been a part of that. There is a conflict of interest in the West in making Israel militarily weak. Israel’s allies are not going to leave Israel vulnerable to an existential attack from Iran and the axis of resistance.

Disarming Israel to the extent Netanyahu can’t continue with the war in Gaza isn’t a solution therefore. - Hamas still needs to be defeated (if not now, eventually) and Hezbollah are not going to stop lobbying missiles over the border unless there is a commitment by Israel to end the occupation of the Palestinian Territories.

A negotiated ceasefire, with the release of hostages, release of Palestinians being held in detention without trial and withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza is the only way forward I think - along with an immediate moratorium on settler expansion in the West Bank.

 
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