[Misc] Economic Effect of No Smokers

Trevor · Apr 18, 2024

Hello top team,
I was wondering where to go with this one. I approve of the recent policy relating to further restrictions of sales of nicoine based upon age - I feel that this will have a positive effect on public health in the long-term. But my question is this. What would the effect be on the UK economy if there were no smokers. I went googling something similar and found some data published by ASH but it clearly missed plenty of the relevant factors. The things that I thought of quickly (but it will be more)

Loss of Tax Revenue
Loss of GDP contribution from sales
NHS Care cost? Is the lifetime cost of NHS care more for a smoker and if so by how much? I know cancer drugs are often very expensive
Greater average earnings due to longer and more effective working lives?
Effect of greater life expentancy. More paid out in pensions etc in retirement years but greater
Effect on GDP of more socially active people?
Others?

I'm not really after people's views about the recently announced policy. Just whether this subject has been covered and where

Uncle Spielberg · Apr 18, 2024

Pension retirement age will go back and back as people live longer

Sid and the Sharknados · Apr 18, 2024

Presumably, the money that people currently spend on cigarettes will be spent on something, it's not like smokers will just chuck £10 notes into a canal instead.

Trevor · Apr 18, 2024

Uncle Spielberg said:
Pension retirement age will go back and back as people live longer

Correct - but on the other hand smoking reduces fertility. pension age (arguably) goes up when there is a higher percenage of the population retired

Anger · Apr 18, 2024

Sid and the Sharknados said:
Presumably, the money that people currently spend on cigarettes will be spent on something, it's not like smokers will just chuck £10 notes into a canal instead.

Don’t oppress them.

If they want to chuck £10 notes into a canal it is their inalienable right to do so.

KZNSeagull · Apr 18, 2024

Sid and the Sharknados said:
Presumably, the money that people currently spend on cigarettes will be spent on something, it's not like smokers will just chuck £10 notes into a canal instead.

Probably black market cigs that are not taxed.

Trevor · Apr 18, 2024

KZNSeagull said:
Probably black market cigs that are not taxed.

yeah, mine is a theoretical question about if there were no smokers

Sid and the Sharknados · Apr 18, 2024

KZNSeagull said:
Probably black market cigs that are not taxed.

A fair point that occurred to me as soon as I pressed send.
But given the aim is to reduce how many smokers there are in the first place (something we've had some success in doing already so it's not a nonsensical idea) I think a decent portion of the money would just go elsewhere in the legitimate economy even if it goes via vaping instead of cigarettes.

Tom Hark Preston Park · Apr 18, 2024

Public health should win the day over any pro-smoking economic arguments. Ditto over any pro-car economic arguments. Both sets of lobbyists make a strong case. Doesn't make either case right tho

Sid and the Sharknados · Apr 18, 2024

Anger said:
Don’t oppress them.

If they want to chuck £10 notes into a canal it is their inalienable right to do so.

I'm still angry about The Man trying to oppress my crippling smack addiction.

Psychobilly freakout · Apr 18, 2024

Trevor said:
Hello top team,
I was wondering where to go with this one. I approve of the recent policy relating to further restrictions of sales of nicoine based upon age - I feel that this will have a positive effect on public health in the long-term. But my question is this. What would the effect be on the UK economy if there were no smokers. I went googling something similar and found some data published by ASH but it clearly missed plenty of the relevant factors. The things that I thought of quickly (but it will be more)

Loss of Tax Revenue
Loss of GDP contribution from sales
NHS Care cost? Is the lifetime cost of NHS care more for a smoker and if so by how much? I know cancer drugs are often very expensive
Greater average earnings due to longer and more effective working lives?
Effect of greater life expentancy. More paid out in pensions etc in retirement years but greater
Effect on GDP of more socially active people?
Others?

I'm not really after people's views about the recently announced policy. Just whether this subject has been covered and where

hmmm...

It is almost as if you want folks to.....

Trevor · Apr 18, 2024

Tom Hark Preston Park said:
Public health should win the day over any pro-smoking economic arguments. Ditto over any pro-car economic arguments. Both sets of lobbyists put forward a strong case. Doesn't make either case right tho

Yes, I think I mentioned my view on this which is not based upon economics so i agree with you. I would still like to know the answer though

Uncle Spielberg · Apr 18, 2024

£ 18 for a pack of 20 but people can get a triple macdonalds burger for £ 2.99

Weststander · Apr 18, 2024

Sales of emulsion for ceilings will fall, don't invest in Dulux or Crown shares.

Productivity will increase with Karen's no longer standing outside places of work every hour.

Trevor · Apr 18, 2024

Weststander said:
Sales of emulsion for ceilings will fall, don't invest in Dulux or Crown shares.

Productivity will increase with Karen's no longer standing outside places of work every hour.

and indeed Kevins

dazzer6666 · Apr 18, 2024

Weststander said:
Sales of emulsion for ceilings will fall, don't invest in Dulux or Crown shares.

Productivity will increase with Karen's no longer standing outside places of work every hour.

Volume of office gossip will reduce faster than the tax take :laugh:

beorhthelm · Apr 18, 2024

Tom Hark Preston Park said:
Public health should win the day over any pro-smoking economic arguments. Ditto over any pro-car economic arguments. Both sets of lobbyists make a strong case. Doesn't make either case right tho

public health always wins over all other considerations? i hope not, there should always be some informed balance, acceptance of some risk and impact weighed against benefits to quality of life.

KZNSeagull · Apr 18, 2024

Weststander said:
Sales of emulsion for ceilings will fall, don't invest in Dulux or Crown shares.

Productivity will increase with Karen's no longer standing outside places of work every hour.

In the short term. In the long term the ex-smokers won't be able to work as they will be so fat from all the extra chocolate and takeaways they now desire.

deletebeepbeepbeep · Apr 18, 2024

I'm not a smoker but against the ban but then I would also legalise and tax most drugs for recreational use.

keaton · Apr 18, 2024

Uncle Spielberg said:
£ 18 for a pack of 20 but people can get a triple macdonalds burger for £ 2.99

Not entirely sure of your point, but food is requirement, a cigarette isn't

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[Misc] Economic Effect of No Smokers

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