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[News] Hamas/Gaza/Israel













Deportivo Seagull

Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
4,913
Mid Sussex
borat said:
The minimal damage I am theorising is somewhat deliberate so as not to fully escalate the situation.
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i would disagre. Anything other than significant damage is a failure. If you were the Saudi’s ( if there is anything more the Iranians hate more than Israel it’s the Saudi) you’d be laughing your socks off. 300 drone etc and you’ve only scratched some paint. That is an abject failure.

Added to that I’m not convinced that anyone could be that accurate with than many drones etc.
 






drew

drew

Drew
Oct 3, 2006
23,071
Burgess Hill
aolstudios said:
This ^
The whole situation, frankly
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Exactly. Hamas hadn't a hope in hell of defeating Israel but they were supported by an extremist leader in Iran who himself is almost certainly being funded/prompted by Putin who could do with some distraction by the West over Ukraine. This is all compounded by an extremist leader in Israel, hell bent on retaining power at whatever cost.
 


drew

drew

Drew
Oct 3, 2006
23,071
Burgess Hill
Tom Hark Preston Park said:
Maybe this is as far as the Iranian retaliation goes for the Israeli strike that killed an Iranian commander in Damascus? For home consumption they need to be seen to be retaliating, but at the same time they must be fully aware that Israel and its allies are fully capable of neutralising that retaliation. Call it a draw? 🤞
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Let's hope so but Netanyahu also has a domestic audience he wants to impress.
 




Zeberdi

Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
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Oct 20, 2022
4,899
Deportivo Seagull said:
Apparently they have informed the UN that they consider that matter closed ….. or in other words … it didn’t work.
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Not sure what you mean by ‘it didn’t work’? This attack last night was a warning shot across the bow - Iran warned it was planning a ‘measured’ retaliation for Israel bombing the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Without US, RAF and Jordanian involvement taking out drones and shooting down cruise and ballistic missiles before they reached Israeli airspace last night, some of the massive barrage of highly sophisticated missiles and drones (along with smaller missile attacks from Hezbollah on Israel’s Northern border), would have got through Israel’s defences and caused significant damage. I believe a few actually did but hit military targets with no casualties.

That was the message - Israel cannot take on Iran without escalating this into a direct confrontation involving the US/other Western allies. As a significant response but one that hopefully won’t spark another retaliatory tit for tat against Iran directly, it was quite successful from Iran’s point of view - they have flexed their military muscles while minimising the risk of further escalation and the regime has saved face by ‘roaring loudly’ at what they see as ‘the aggressor’.

The fact that Iran has even launched a missile/drone attack directly at Israel has brought the ME to a very dangerous escalation point indeed. This was the first time Iran had ever directly fired missiles at Israel and it remains to be seen whether Israel will respond in kind by launching a direct attack on Iran sparking an even bigger retaliation..
 
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Zeberdi

Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
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Oct 20, 2022
4,899
drew said:
Let's hope so but Netanyahu also has a domestic audience he wants to impress.
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Maybe a decade ago and certainly prior to 7/10 but Netanyahu‘s ‘domestic audience’ now wants him out of power as soon as possible. The people he is ‘trying to impress’ (if that’s the right expression?) are the fascist extremists who hold the balance of power in his coalition government - appeasing them is the only thing keeping him in power and out of prison for years of corruption. The majority of Israelis no longer believe Bibi is the leader to defend and protect Israel from Iran but the leader who himself is the existential threat to Israel - last night’s attack will do nothing to allay those fears. October 7 was seen as a massive security failure, his war in Gaza is seen as a massive failure both to destroy Hamas or get the hostages back and the attack last night will convince even more Israelis that Netanyahu must go.
 
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Hugo Rune

Hugo Rune

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Feb 23, 2012
21,644
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Zeberdi said:
Not sure what you mean by ‘it didn’t work’? This attack last night was a warning shot across the bow if Israel continues it’s bombardment in Gaza, continues targeting Iranian infrastructure in Syria and Lebanon and what Iran warned it was planning in a ‘measured’ retaliation for Israel bombing the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Without US, RAF and Jordanian involvement taking out drones and shooting down cruise and ballistic missiles before they reached Israeli airspace last night, some of the massive barrage of highly sophisticated missiles and drones (along with smaller missile attacks from Hezbollah on Israel’s Northern border), would have got through Israel’s defences and caused significant damage. I believe a few actually did but hit military targets with no casualties.

Iran does not want a full blown war with Israel but it certainly has the capability to do so - the scale of this retaliation was unexpected in that it massive in size, it caused widespread fear in the ME and in the West that things had spiralled out of control, forced Israelis into bunkers in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv and closed airspace throughout the ME and stretched Israel’s defences to their limit. As a significant response but one that hopefully won’t spark another retaliatory tit for tat against Iran directly, it was quite successful from Iran’s point of view - they have flexed their military muscles while minimising the risk of further escalation and the regime has saved face by ‘roaring loudly’ at what they see as ‘the aggressor’.

Make no mistake, the fact that Iran has even launched a missile/drone attack directly at Israel has brought the ME to a very dangerous escalation point indeed. This was the first time Iran had ever directly fired missiles at Israel and it remains to be seen whether Israel will respond in kind by launching a direct attack on Iran sparking an even bigger retaliation..
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I agree that this will play exceptionally well to the Iranian public and elements of the Muslim community further afield as well as in Russia. But how likely is it that Israel won’t respond? Things could get out of hand very quickly now.

“This could still get a whole lot worse. Israel has vowed "a significant response" to Iran’s overnight missile attack.

But what form will that take? Israel’s military and its war cabinet have been debating exactly that.

The most likely targets will be the Iranian bases that launched those missiles.

But Israel could well decide to go further and strike major Iranian military bases and training centres of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps across the country, inflicting human casualties as well as material damage.” Frank Gardner, BBC.
 






aolstudios

aolstudios

Well-known member
Nov 30, 2011
4,538
brighton
Hugo Rune said:
I agree that this will play exceptionally well to the Iranian public and elements of the Muslim community further afield as well as in Russia. But how likely is it that Israel won’t respond? Things could get out of hand very quickly now.

“This could still get a whole lot worse. Israel has vowed "a significant response" to Iran’s overnight missile attack.

But what form will that take? Israel’s military and its war cabinet have been debating exactly that.

The most likely targets will be the Iranian bases that launched those missiles.

But Israel could well decide to go further and strike major Iranian military bases and training centres of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps across the country, inflicting human casualties as well as material damage.” Frank Gardner, BBC.
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A significant amount of the Iranian public are very anti regime & broadly pro Israel. The view in Iran of the regime's use of the 'Palestinian cause' is cynical at the very best & their treatment of their citizens is almost incomparably savage
 


Deportivo Seagull

Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
4,913
Mid Sussex
Zeberdi said:
Not sure what you mean by ‘it didn’t work’? This attack last night was a warning shot across the bow - Iran warned it was planning a ‘measured’ retaliation for Israel bombing the Iranian embassy in Damascus. Without US, RAF and Jordanian involvement taking out drones and shooting down cruise and ballistic missiles before they reached Israeli airspace last night, some of the massive barrage of highly sophisticated missiles and drones (along with smaller missile attacks from Hezbollah on Israel’s Northern border), would have got through Israel’s defences and caused significant damage. I believe a few actually did but hit military targets with no casualties.

That was the message - Israel cannot take on Iran without escalating this into a direct confrontation involving the US/other Western allies. As a significant response but one that hopefully won’t spark another retaliatory tit for tat against Iran directly, it was quite successful from Iran’s point of view - they have flexed their military muscles while minimising the risk of further escalation and the regime has saved face by ‘roaring loudly’ at what they see as ‘the aggressor’.

The fact that Iran has even launched a missile/drone attack directly at Israel has brought the ME to a very dangerous escalation point indeed. This was the first time Iran had ever directly fired missiles at Israel and it remains to be seen whether Israel will respond in kind by launching a direct attack on Iran sparking an even bigger retaliation..
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Iran wanted destruction. They wanted pictures of destroyed buildings and burning fires that they could proudly show their people. They didn’t get it. Yes it was a very dangerous escalation but instead of showing strength it was a failure. It should be remembered that this isn’t just about Israel or Palestine this was also showing the other Arab neighbours just how strong Iran is. It failed!
The west does however need to sit on Israel and point out that we help defend you so don’t do anything we consider stupid.
they also need to point out that Palestinians aren’t going to go away, so stop the encroaching settlements and work out a sensible solution.
 




Zeberdi

Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
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Oct 20, 2022
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One Love said:
It's what Putin wanted.
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I’m inclined to disagree tbh - Russia is one of the few Countries with good relations with Israel and Iran - I think Putin would prefer Iran focus its resources on helping Putin to win Ukraine. A full blown war in the ME will not help Putin imo, and would also put Russia’s own strategic interests in Syria, Iraq and Iran at risk. The Hamas/Israel war already affords Russia the opportunity to flex its diplomatic muscles in the region too - Russia will not want to lose that opportunity for influence.

The only conceivable way, that I think a completely destabilised ME (which it would be if Israel attacked Iran and this escalated into a regional conflict), would benefit Russia is by threatening global oil prices and supply - at the moment with the West sanctioning export of oil from Russia and relying on Gulf States, that could give Putin a strong bargaining tool should Gulf oil become impacted by a regional war in the ME (given in every other way he is now largely isolated economically) as well as being able to prop up its own fuel reserves. OPEC Countries, especially Saudi Arabia would intervene to deescalate conflict long before Russia held the West to ransom over oil exports and OPEC Countries would agree ease restrictions on production in the ME to reduce cost and ensure supplies.

“The Russians, most of all, don’t want to choose between military ally Iran, and long-standing partner Israel,”

 






Zeberdi

Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
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Oct 20, 2022
4,899
Deportivo Seagull said:
Iran wanted destruction. They wanted pictures of destroyed buildings and burning fires that they could proudly show their people. They didn’t get it. Yes it was a very dangerous escalation but instead of showing strength it was a failure. It should be remembered that this isn’t just about Israel or Palestine this was also showing the other Arab neighbours just how strong Iran is. It failed!
The west does however need to sit on Israel and point out that we help defend you so don’t do anything we consider stupid.
they also need to point out that Palestinians aren’t going to go away, so stop the encroaching settlements and work out a sensible solution.
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Is this opinion or fact? Do you have sources for this?

Not to see that attack for what it is, and what provoked it, is dangerously underestimating the seriousness of the situation. This is no longer a conflict of proxies - Israel made sure of that by directly attacking an Iranian embassy.

Btw - At the moment, we only have Israel’s word for it that there were no damaged buildings or, ‘fire on the ground’ - that information as expected would be controlled by the Israeli propaganda machine.

I do agree that the fact the US and UK/Jordan helped Israel out, gives them a stronger platform for urging restraint/a ceasefire in Gaza. However, let‘s see how Netanyahu responds now to Iran - he’s ignored the US and every UN resolution so far with his actions in Gaza, so I’m not holding my breath he is going to start listening now.
 
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Zeberdi

Zeberdi

Brighton born & bred
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
4,899
Hugo Rune said:
I agree that this will play exceptionally well to the Iranian public and elements of the Muslim community further afield as well as in Russia. But how likely is it that Israel won’t respond? Things could get out of hand very quickly now.

“This could still get a whole lot worse. Israel has vowed "a significant response" to Iran’s overnight missile attack.

But what form will that take? Israel’s military and its war cabinet have been debating exactly that.

The most likely targets will be the Iranian bases that launched those missiles.

But Israel could well decide to go further and strike major Iranian military bases and training centres of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps across the country, inflicting human casualties as well as material damage.” Frank Gardner, BBC.
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Yes spot on - as I said last night, the real risk of any direct retaliation by Iran for the embassy bombing, was not how much damage Iran would do from a pre-warned limited drone/missile strike - but what kind of response this triggers from Netanyahu to escalate even further - IMO, Netanyahu is as much liability as Putin is - they both have expansionist aspirations, don’t care for their own people and are more than happy to take all of us to the brink of regional/even global war to achieve their objectives.

Netanyahu and Putin must both be stopped - God knows what will happen if Trump joins them as a global leader on the international stage with his documented full support of Bibi’s and Putin’s respective agendas in Gaza and Ukraine 😕
 


Deportivo Seagull

Deportivo Seagull

I should coco
Jul 22, 2003
4,913
Mid Sussex
Zeberdi said:
Is this opinion or fact? Do you have sources for this?

I am concerned tbh that people think anything less than a full blown escalation into a war between Israel and Iran is a failure on Iran’s part. It is Netanyahu that is trying to escalate the Hamas/Israel war into a situation where Israel is under threat by Iran. Last night, as forewarned, was only intended by Iran to be a limited retaliation not to provoke further escalation (which it certainly would have if lives had been lost and infrastructure destroyed) - it remains to be seen now by Israel’s response if the retaliation by Iran was limited enough to prevent that.

’It should be remembered’ (to quote the above) that less than a fortnight ago, Israel was becoming a pariah on the world stage and there were international discussions about sanctions and restricting arms sales to Israel. Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria was a serious and deliberate provocation to bait Iran into a direct response and thus give Netanyahu a moral advantage on the international stage that since mid October last year, they had been very much losing.

Not to see that attack for what it is, and what provoked it, is dangerously underestimating the seriousness of the situation. This is no longer a conflict of proxies - Israel made sure of that by directly attacking an Iranian embassy.

Btw - At the moment, we only have Israel’s word for it that there were no damaged buildings or, ‘fire on the ground’ - that information as expected would be controlled by the Israeli propaganda machine.

I do agree that the fact the US and UK/Jordan helped Israel out, gives them a stronger platform for urging restraint/a ceasefire in Gaza. However, let‘s see how Netanyahu responds now to Iran - he’s ignored the US and every UN resolution so far with his actions in Gaza, so I’m not holding my breath he is going to start listening now.
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Obviously opinion as I don’t have a personal line into Iran.
I very much foubt that Iran wants all out war in the Middle East, as it’s a war they couldn’t win. What they want is a position of power and standing which giving Israel a bloody nose would have done. If you chuck 300 drones at Israel you would expect significant damage as a result, otherwise why do it? Strategically it doesn’t make sense. There are loads of foreign journalist’s in Israel so it’s not something you can hide.
Netanyahu is an a basket case and in an ideal world would be consigned to the bin with Putin, Trump etc. The west need to sit on him.
 


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