[Politics] Brexit

[Neville's Breakfast]

Face it a weaker pound will punish those at the bottom of the pile who rely on most of their income to buy the basics. A GBP / USD is in effect the countries share price, its woven into so much of the economy

There are winners from a weak sterling, but we've devalued more than 20% more its no cause for celebration

Tory policy, maybe an untended one. But everyone knows who benefits from Tory governments

I disagree that an exchange rate is a proxy for a country's share price for reasons I have outlined
before and I am certainly not celebrating the weaker pound. I also wouldn't celebrate a stronger
pound because this would hurt our export industries. I don't think it's as simple as
pound up good, pound down bad.
I'm actually unsure as to which consumers stand to lose the most from a weaker pound. Wouldn't that be those who buy the
most imports and therefore weighted towards buyers of luxuries ? (Perhaps the champagne needed to be a champagne socialist ? as mentioned by [MENTION=34106]ManOfSussex[/MENTION] - joke btw not aimed at you or anyone else in particular). Surely a move to sourcing local goods would be good for the economy and would provide better jobs than some of the low skilled employment provided by multinationals ? I would have thought a more vibrant local economy would benefit those at the bottom of the pile every bit as much as anyone else ? I accept that this is a quick analysis that makes assumptions but that is true of your theory as well.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Did he contradict himself?

Lol! No just backed up what the other one of him was saying.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Oh happy days GBP at 31 year low against USD

Why are you only ever mentioning the'bad' things in the economy? There are loads of positives, particularly when compared to how bad the EU economy is.

 

[El Presidente]

If it is "tory party policy" then how come Dave and most of the party were remainers.

Agreed. The only parties formally in favour of Brexit were UKIP and BNP.


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[Lincoln Imp]

Why are you only ever mentioning the'bad' things in the economy? There are loads of positives, particularly when compared to how bad the EU economy is.

As a counterpoint to people claiming that absolutely everything is going swimmingly perhaps?

 

[CHAPPERS]

I'm actually unsure as to which consumers stand to lose the most from a weaker pound. Wouldn't that be those who buy the
most imports and therefore weighted towards buyers of luxuries ?

Oh come on.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Oh come on.

'Oh come on '... what ?
I am saying I am unsure.

 

[studio150]

Why are you only ever mentioning the'bad' things in the economy? There are loads of positives, particularly when compared to how bad the EU economy is.

OK I wont mention the IMF downgrade on GDP growth in 2017, and the warning that 2017 could prove more damaging if trade barriers are imposed as part of the EU exit. No I must only smile and forget about anything negative.

 

[CHAPPERS]

'Oh come on '... what ?
I am saying I am unsure.

Who loses most due to a weaker pound, the person on the breadline struggling to feed their kids or the person looking to buy a case of Veuve Cliquot?

What is there to be unsure about?

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

OK I wont mention the IMF downgrade on GDP growth in 2017, and the warning that 2017 could prove more damaging if trade barriers are imposed as part of the EU exit. No I must only smile and forget about anything negative.

The IMF hasn't exactly got a very impressive record in forecasting....
There are no barriers to trade currently planned with the EU....

 

[studio150]

I'm actually unsure as to which consumers stand to lose the most from a weaker pound. Wouldn't that be those who buy the most imports and therefore weighted towards buyers of luxuries ? (.

Really?

Barrels of oil are priced in USD therefore if the GbP is weaker against the USD the cost of fuel rises. Higher pirces at the pumps, higher distribution costs, higher transport costs, cost of basic food goods imported rises, etc

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Who loses most due to a weaker pound, the person on the breadline struggling to feed their kids or the person looking to buy a case of Veuve Cliquot?

What is there to be unsure about?

It depends where those items are sourced. I'm pretty sure Veuve Cliquot comes from
France....
My point is one would need to analyze the domestic versus imported balance in consumers' monthly spend. I am
unsure because I haven't read any such analysis. Trying to guess where you are coming from you are I think assuming prices will rise for everybody and therefore richer people will more easily be able to absorb these rises. So you seem to be making
as much assumption as me( the general price rise part).

 

[beorhthelm]

Who loses most due to a weaker pound, the person on the breadline struggling to feed their kids or the person looking to buy a case of Veuve Cliquot?

What is there to be unsure about?

its the latter as they are the one importing foreign goods. whoever is struggling on the breadline isnt going to be buying goods - essentially food and energy right? - with currency exposure.

 

[beorhthelm]

There are winners from a weak sterling, but we've devalued more than 20% more its no cause for celebration

Tory policy, maybe an untended one. But everyone knows who benefits from Tory governments

in this case exporters. loving the contradiction of "unintended policy" btw.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Really?

Barrels of oil are priced in USD therefore if the GbP is weaker against the USD the cost of fuel rises. Higher pirces at the pumps, higher distribution costs, higher transport costs, cost of basic food goods imported rises, etc

A large part of the petrol price is tax and therefore it is possible for Government to
mitigate such an effect.....if they choose

It's interesting by the way that the middle class/champagne left are in favour of high taxes on petrol for environmental reasons and don't care about the effects on the poor. However when petrol prices rise due to Brexit they suddenly seem unhappy...

 

[CHAPPERS]

The point is absorption. Who gives a **** about people buying luxury goods? Those who are struggling should be at the forefront of all this.

 

[Soulman]

SHOCK - HORROR.

Financial markets/forecasters react and are often wrong. For example - Lehmans, Dot-Com bubble, Deutsche Bank. IMF was wrong about the policies pursued by the government when it came to power and were forecasting a recession. The IMF then had to admit it's mistake.

The reality is, markets hate uncertainty but also have a herd mentality. If you rely upon them for your 'support' of your argument, you've lost.

This today from the Guardian no less.

"IMF left shamefaced after peak pessimism over Brexit vote "

So what do you do if your forecasts turn out to be a little wide of the mark? Either you put your hands up and admit you were wrong. Or you brazen it out. You say that it is too early to say. You say that eventually you will come right.

No prizes for guessing which option the IMF has taken. Its half-yearly world economic outlook (WEO) report says the UK will do fine in 2016 but is going to find the going a lot tougher in 2017.

This is a perfectly respectable view, and one held by a host of academic, business and City economists. Had the IMF stuck to this sort of assessment throughout the referendum campaign, it would have saved itself embarrassment now. As it is, it will get some stick from those who thought the Washington-based fund had overstepped the mark in its support for the remain camp.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-international-monetary-fund?CMP=share_btn_fb

 

[Buzzer]

Agreed. The only parties formally in favour of Brexit were UKIP and BNP.


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Not true, there were a number of left-wing parties including Respect that backed Brexit, the DUP also backed Brexit. But I do take issue at your clear attempt to smear the LEAVE campaign by implying that only extremists supported Brexit.

By that same token, the REMAIN camp included Sinn Fein whereas if Bob Crow and Tony Benn were alive today they would both have campaigned for Brexit.

 

[Soulman]

Not true, there were a number of left-wing parties including Respect that backed Brexit, the DUP also backed Brexit. But I do take issue at your clear attempt to smear the LEAVE campaign by implying that only extremists supported Brexit.

By that same token, the REMAIN camp included Sinn Fein whereas if Bob Crow and Tony Benn were alive today they would both have campaigned for Brexit.

Yes.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

As a counterpoint to people claiming that absolutely everything is going swimmingly perhaps?

Those claims are equally ridiculous. It will take ages to settle down.