[Politics] Brexit

[ManOfSussex]

If someone wants free movement to end, can they explain what border arrangements we will have with The Republic of Ireland and an independent Scotland?

Or is it just another case of Johnny Foreigner will just have to do as we tell them?

 

[Diego Napier]

It was from some people. It was less of an issue with many others. Controlling our own destiny was the predominant factor with many and a complete dislike of the bureaucratic monolith that Brussels has become. Many people also feel that the EU has a limited future and that pulling out now gives us more time to regroup.

The majority of the population voted with their feelings driven by their own personalities.

Most people who voted Remain did so because they felt it was right to integrate with people of other nations rather than be isolated or they felt that they would be better off economically. There is no empirical evidence to support that choice.

Most people who voted Leave felt that there are too many other people here who look and/or sound different or because they felt they've lost British sovereignty and they are suffering as a direct consequence. There is certainly no empirical evidence to support those feelings.

 

[Seasider78]

48% of people voted for things to stay as they are. I would expect at least 2% of those who voted out are happy with the current immigration policy. Therefore, on that basis, it would be undemocratic to go against the will of the people and change the immigration policy.

That is a fairly big assumption what exactly are you basing that on?? Taking this approach you could argue the other way and say 2% of remainers were not happy with current immigration policy but voted to remain for economic or other reasons

 

[pb21]

You would be completely wrong then. As I said previously polling has consistently showed a vast majority (70% +) want immigration rates reduced.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/14.3

http://www.migrationobservatory.ox....migration-overall-attitudes-and-level-concern

Yeah but we haven't had a referendum on that have we?

Also migration watch?!

 

[smeg]

Steady on, the Remainers are a bit touchy about this subject

When I say touchy let me clarify, I'm a Remainer and every comment I have made has been interpreted as a dig at so called less intelligent people but i'm struggling to come to any other conclusion here. I can only say it as I see it and that boils down to a right wing, Murdoch inspired campaign pandering to racist and nationalistic views.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Yeah but we haven't had a referendum on that have we?

You were making a point about democracy and going against the will of the people re immigration. The will of the people on the specific question on immigration is clearly to reduce it.

 

[Jim in the West]

The problem is that there was no unified vision put forward by the Leave campaign. Now that we have Brexit it is open to anyone and everyone to interpret what is really meant by Leave. Personally, I have felt throughout this process it is critical for the UK economy to retain access to the Single Market. Which means free movement of people.

What we now see is that "Project Fear" is actually turning out to be true - in fact (as most columnists in the FT said), the reality is WORSE than most of the predictions. The only way to rescue things is to negotiate access to the Single Market, and send a clear message to the world that it is as close to "business as usual" as possible. The short to medium term economic outlook is dire, and - as was obvious before the Referendum - the poor and disadvantaged in this country will be those who suffer. It appears many are beginning to realise their error. Unfortunately, it is too late.

 

[beorhthelm]

You might want to consider getting a dictionary and looking up 'austerity'.

we havent cut anything, only the rate of increase of spending. case in point the controvesy over disability payments, the budget for that had risen some 4bn in 6 years and the cuts were to change the projected increase from another 3bn to only 1bn. this is then called a 2bn cut, prehaps it is in real terms and would certainly have effects on some claimants, the point remains that the nominal budget outlay was never reduced. this pattern is followed across government spending, and its why we still have a 70bn deficit, nothing has been meaningfully cut, budgets have had the edges trimmed. now if he'd done something about growth he might have been able to do something tangible, but with NHS and pensions ringfenced (indeed increased), and aversion to tax rises (though there are some now planned), politically sensitive areas have come under the knife only for the operation to be cancelled.

 

[CheeseRolls]

You are right on this part, the trouble is when you have politicians who are so pro EU and fail to recognise the problems within the EU, there is never going to be any fundamental change. They don't have to live with the decisions.

It is really quite simple, if I don't get the reforms I want I will just have to vote for UKIP in the next GE.

Can I also add, business has a massive part to play in this. Take for example a supplier, instead of rushing to China why can't the government invest a bit of money in manufacturing companies and look at getting products manufactured here. There are not enough of these types of jobs anymore, which is why people are feeling left out.

Bash I understand that the main issue for you is immigration, but you have to realise that the broader coalition that you support is very much in favour of small government and limited intervention. The idea that a UK government invest in manufacturing is an absolute non-starter. The best hope to grow a UK manufacturing base, is investment in apprenticeship schemes to train the next generation, but the base to grow this from is so small, it is a mammoth task.

 

[dingodan]

People are often unsurprisingly (?) reluctant to admit to racism and xenophobia being their primary motivation and will seek to rationalise their views in other terms. However listening to the debates and interviews during the campaign it was clearly a central issue and not just for Nigel Farage. At the very least (and to put it most kindly) reducing inward migration was very clearly a live and crucial issue

And yes, Boris is a complete twunt

Immigration was a big issue in the debate, but a) it was intrinsically linked to the issue of democratic control (because we cannot make decisions about immigration - rather than the referrendum just being a vote for more or less immigration), and b) peoples concerns about immigration have nothing to do with racism or xenophobia, and to suggest that it does is pretty low. Even this morning I heard someone say that the accusation that Remainers were calling people concerned about immigration racist were not true, it was just what Leavers were saying. a) You are an example of it, so it is true, and b) this kind of attitude in your post helped to create the division in our country and the steadfast determination to basically ignore the remain side. I don't know if you think that you help your cause by sgguesting Leavers are racists, but let me tell you, that attitude hurt your cause massively.

 

[beorhthelm]

I agree here. especially the party about manufacturing in the UK. Why not start to produce goods and services in the countries/areas that they are going to be used. Save money on transport and movement, increase employment and save the environment. It is a win win win. A political party offering this sort of simple logic to provide growth would get my vote.

people are faced with this issue regularly and usually buy the cheaper item. because the cost of bulk transportation is so low, the cost to move an item from China to Chester is negligable, so if the cost of man power and resources to manufacture are cheaper abroad, it will be made abroad. then you have regulations that make manufacturing in Chester very challenging, possible but with additional costs to keep things clean and safe, so we push that pollution and risk abroad too. so until you are prepared to go with things, to unwind the decades of consumerist demand, which would have a negative impact on spending, growth, empolyment etc, then its fantasy. that said, apparently some production is coming back to Europe and UK as costs of labour increase in asia.

 

[Ernest]

It won't be surprising to see Brexit never happen, the Labour Party MP's trying to do its coup so they can go against the peoples wishes, The Tories having no plan for Brexit despite being the ones that were pressing for it, they just didn't think that people would vote for Brexit and now they are doing their best to make sure it won't happen.

Democracy is ok as long as you vote as the elite want you to.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

The problem is that there was no unified vision put forward by the Leave campaign. Now that we have Brexit it is open to anyone and everyone to interpret what is really meant by Leave. Personally, I have felt throughout this process it is critical for the UK economy to retain access to the Single Market. Which means free movement of people.

What we now see is that "Project Fear" is actually turning out to be true - in fact (as most columnists in the FT said), the reality is WORSE than most of the predictions. The only way to rescue things is to negotiate access to the Single Market, and send a clear message to the world that it is as close to "business as usual" as possible. The short to medium term economic outlook is dire, and - as was obvious before the Referendum - the poor and disadvantaged in this country will be those who suffer. It appears many are beginning to realise their error. Unfortunately, it is too late.

Firstly it's far to early to judge anything so not sure why you are still trying to run with project fear now the campaign is over apart from a need to say I told you so.

From what I have read the falls have been in line with what we would expect considering the uncertainty and not as cataclysmic as some predicted. Even the remain supporting business secretary conceded the treasury short term forecasts and punishment budget were cobblers.

France has confirmed UK border controls will remain

Merkel has signalled the future negotiations will not be used to extract revenge

What specific aspect of project fear is true?

 

[CHAPPERS]

What does this mean for the likes of Amazon, Starbucks and all that lot who route their profits through Luxembourg, Ireland etc?

Are we able to tax them properly now or will they be able to carry on as normal??

I tihnk I already know the answer, unfortunately, but happy to hear thoughts.

 

[Goldstone1976]

It won't be surprising to see Brexit never happen, the Labour Party MP's trying to do its coup so they can go against the peoples wishes, The Tories having no plan for Brexit despite being the ones that were pressing for it, they just didn't think that people would vote for Brexit and now they are doing their best to make sure it won't happen.

Democracy is ok as long as you vote as the elite want you to.

I (largely) agree. See my post #2264.

The one area I disagree is part of your analysis of the Labour Party's current situation. You forget to mention that Corbyn (allegedly reluctantly, and, imo, definitely half-heartedly) campaigned for Remain...

 

[Jim in the West]

Project Fear is over. No emergency budget

I think the announcement this morning was that the emergency Budget will be in the Autumn, when the OBR has had time to assess the post-Brexit economic outlook. My bet is that the OBR will produce a rather pessimistic view, and that the next Budget will include tax rises and spending cuts. If Boris is PM it will be a Budget which aims to keep his core vote ("Middle England") on side.

 

[beorhthelm]

What we now see is that "Project Fear" is actually turning out to be true - in fact (as most columnists in the FT said), the reality is WORSE than most of the predictions.

what reality? its not even 2 working days later, what has materially changed? it might do but it is still so much speculation.

back to the initial question, as someone put, freedom of movement was not on the ballot. so no it was not an instruction to stop this. if one wants to argue that it was the result of an anti-immigration sentiment, then we should first have to look at general immigration policy, not just with EU. that means closing the door to those from Africa and Asia, closing door to asylum seekers which is alien to the British sense of justice. the problem with EU freedom of movement has always been the EUs own rules weren't applied by us or other EU nations, you arent allowed to just rock up and expect full entitlements, you must have means to support yourself. if the EU stated this and allowed us to force the repartiation of anyone claiming benefits to their original nation, we'd probably not be here. the EU created this mess with its instance of forceing rules (free movement) on nations, without enforcing details (terms ofr free movement).

 

[Jim in the West]

What does this mean for the likes of Amazon, Starbucks and all that lot who route their profits through Luxembourg, Ireland etc?

Are we able to tax them properly now or will they be able to carry on as normal??

I tihnk I already know the answer, unfortunately, but happy to hear thoughts.

The EU is at the heart of moves which the OECD is making to address "profit shifting". We are part of this, but it's a global issue - you can't act alone for obvious reasons. HMRC is putting in train changes to UK tax legislation which reflect the OECD guidelines. Whether we're in the EU or not won't make any difference.

 

[severnside gull]

Immigration was a big issue in the debate, but a) it was intrinsically linked to the issue of democratic control (because we cannot make decisions about immigration - rather than the referrendum just being a vote for more or less immigration), and b) peoples concerns about immigration have nothing to do with racism or xenophobia, and to suggest that it does is pretty low. Even this morning I heard someone say that the accusation that Remainers were calling people concerned about immigration racist were not true, it was just what Leavers were saying. a) You are an example of it, so it is true, and b) this kind of attitude in your post helped to create the division in our country and the steadfast determination to basically ignore the remain side. I don't know if you think that you help your cause by sgguesting Leavers are racists, but let me tell you, that attitude hurt your cause massively.

I can only say that in the Midlands where I live and which voted significantly to leave, immigration was a massive element of the process especially within existing migrant communities. To say otherwise would be to deny a manifest if unpopular truth.
If objecting to a xenophobic outlook hardens views against mine I will happily live with that in preference to keeping quiet.
As it stands we are the butt of every joke in Europe who view us very much as myopic little Englanders who have lost the ability to take a world view and who aren't inclined to a charitable response to our attempts at negotiating advantageous terms. Still, as the failures mount up we will doubtless dismiss them as "bloody foreigners"

 

[Ernest]

We won't exit.


Longer version: There will be behind the scenes informal negotiations with the EU starting in a week or so. The new PM (May??) will continue those negotiations and win some new concessions which will be able to be dressed up as very large (something on UK Parliament sovereignty, something on border control). This will enable her (him) to call a snap election with a "vote for me and we'll stay in on these new improved terms" pitch. The Tories will win (labour will likely still be in chaos - shame on them). The PM, now with a "mandate", will declare "victory" and we stay in.

Easy, this political prediction stuff, innit? All imo, obviously.

Yes, something along those lines but I don't think some people (the hotheads etc) will go along so simple as that, the genie is out of the bottle and there isn't a politician of any party with the support and the presence to reunite all the factions that have now come out into the open