[Politics] Brexit

[Hampster Gull]

Surely we HAVE to weigh up the consequences of our vote. Not to do so would be madness. Some of the things I'm concerned about post-Brexit (if that's the outcome) are:

- The break-up of the UK (Scotland - and possibly Northern Ireland) voting to leave the UK;
- Re-igniting sectarianism in Northern Ireland;
- The gradual break-up of the EU, leading to massive political instability in Europe, capitalised upon by an expansionist Russia;
- England & Wales governed by a far right amalgam of Farage, Gove and Johnson;

Of course none of these things may happen, but they're all more likely is we Vote Leave.

Interesting. I think Scotland exiting is very likely with brexit

 

[beorhthelm]

A quick practical question for the Vote Leave proponents:

Assuming there's a Brexit vote, and assuming Scotland then votes for independence, and remains in the EU (highly likely, I think), how will our borders be controlled? Vote Leave has already said they will not introduce border controls between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland - so I assume there won't be any controls between England and Scotland. If that's the case, I can't see how there can be any control over who comes into this country. But maybe I'm missing something....

i'd say the thing missing is any evidence that RoI is currently being used for illegal access the UK. if this was a practical option for people today, they'd be going through there and we'd probably have to give it more consideration. you have to fly into Ireland, those that can could just fly into Gatwick and Heathrow as tourists and stay. you'd probably increase checks on the ferrys rather than the Irish border. for Scotland, theres alot of assumption to work through there (they'd have a vote, they'd win, they'd be allowed to join EU within a decade), and end up with the same basic issue of getting to Scotland first. in short it shouldnt really be given much consideration, we should be focusing a bit more on looking at ramping up international trading opportunities, addressing reworking unnecessary regulations etc, rather than worry Scots and Irish coming in (which would probably be allowed anyway, as per existing Irish model).

 

[Soulman]

Interesting. I think Scotland exiting is very likely with brexit

Unfortunately the Paddys will be with Remain.
Bob Geldof, the Irish singer and political activist, has instructed every single Irish person living in the UK to vote against Brexit simply because they are Irish.

[Remember 'jus give us yer feckin' munny'?]


The video features dozens of Irish people explaining where in the UK their Irish friends live, with the implication that they might have to leave in the event of a Brexit. “My mate Maguire in Birmingham, my sister Patty up in the Wye Valley, Ted in Islington, the kids in north, south and east London,” says Mr. Geldof. “Ah, every Irish person: Vote!” he adds.
The Irish Prime Minister and the leaders of various Irish political parties including Fianna Fáil have made similar calls for the Irish to vote for remain.
The Live Aid and Boomtown Rats start made the demand in a video released on YouTube and Twitter, put out by the group Irish4Europe for their #PhoneAFriend campaign.

The campaign says it is targeting around 600,000 Irish-born people living and working in Britain.

Irish citizens aged 18 or over and resident in the Britain or Gibraltar can vote in the referendum, as can Commonwealth citizens.

 

[Buzzer]

A quick practical question for the Vote Leave proponents:

Assuming there's a Brexit vote, and assuming Scotland then votes for independence, and remains in the EU (highly likely, I think), how will our borders be controlled? Vote Leave has already said they will not introduce border controls between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland - so I assume there won't be any controls between England and Scotland. If that's the case, I can't see how there can be any control over who comes into this country. But maybe I'm missing something....

An independent Scotland would find that the Spanish would block their ascension to the EU. They've already stated that before the last referendum. They will do so to keep Catalans from trying to break away. The Belgians likewise to prevent Flemish independence.

Taking your point, at the moment most if not all EU nationals have right of abode in the UK, if they come over the border from Ireland or Scotland (assuming the worst) then they would do so as illegal immigrants which is a completely different kettle of fish than free movement.

 

[larus]

There's a big difference between stating as facts that Boris can't be leader or what the result of a referendum will be, and looking at economic reality of the single currency. The EURO won't survive without Fiscal integration. But, maybe economic reality (rather than scare predictions) aren't really your thing.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Unfortunately the Paddys will be with Remain.
Bob Geldof, the Irish singer and political activist, has instructed every single Irish person living in the UK to vote against Brexit simply because they are Irish.

[Remember 'jus give us yer feckin' munny'?]


The video features dozens of Irish people explaining where in the UK their Irish friends live, with the implication that they might have to leave in the event of a Brexit. “My mate Maguire in Birmingham, my sister Patty up in the Wye Valley, Ted in Islington, the kids in north, south and east London,” says Mr. Geldof. “Ah, every Irish person: Vote!” he adds.
The Irish Prime Minister and the leaders of various Irish political parties including Fianna Fáil have made similar calls for the Irish to vote for remain.
The Live Aid and Boomtown Rats start made the demand in a video released on YouTube and Twitter, put out by the group Irish4Europe for their #PhoneAFriend campaign.

The campaign says it is targeting around 600,000 Irish-born people living and working in Britain.

Irish citizens aged 18 or over and resident in the Britain or Gibraltar can vote in the referendum, as can Commonwealth citizens.

It's completely disingenuous to suggest that Irish people would lose the right of residency. That was enshrined as part of Irish independence.

Sent from the boot of Lingard

 

[Hampster Gull]

There's a big difference between stating as facts that Boris can't be leader or what the result of a referendum will be, and looking at economic reality of the single currency. The EURO won't survive without Fiscal integration. But, maybe economic reality (rather than scare predictions) aren't really your thing.

How can anyone interpret a view on the referendum result as a fact. Ffs. Btw I suspect there will be fiscal integration for countries in the euro.

 

[brighton fella]

A quick practical question for the Vote Leave proponents:

Assuming there's a Brexit vote, and assuming Scotland then votes for independence, and remains in the EU (highly likely, I think), how will our borders be controlled? Vote Leave has already said they will not introduce border controls between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland - so I assume there won't be any controls between England and Scotland. If that's the case, I can't see how there can be any control over who comes into this country. But maybe I'm missing something....

Of course there will be border controls otherwise what's the point in brexit, who exactly was it who said no border controls in Ireland?

You think Johnson , Gove and Farage are all far right.... first good laugh i've had all day.

 

[larus]

How can anyone interpret a view on the referendum result as a fact. Ffs. Btw I suspect there will be fiscal integration for countries in the euro.

There's no way the Finns, Dutch or Germans will agree to wealth transfer to the 'lazy' southern states. Also, it's against the German constitution, so would need a referendum there. AfD is gaining in the polls there, so Fiscal Union is so far in the future as irrelevant (in the time context of Greece, Italy etc.).

 

[brighton fella]

'Cameron can't be trusted' PM blasted as SECRET £2bn EU bill REVEALED
BRITAIN is facing a £2billion bill from the EU which has been kept hidden until after the referendum, it has been revealed.
A report for the European Parliament has noted that there is already a backlog of almost £20 billion in unpaid bills which member states will have to pick up.

This means an extra £2 billion from the UK and there are fears that Britain will also be hauled into bailing out countries in the eurozone with both Greece and Italy understood to be on the brink of crisis.
And they have written a letter to Mr Cameron laying out their concerns over what will happen to the UK if voters decide to back Remain.

They point out how Mr Cameron had vowed not to pay an extra £1.7 billion demanded by Brussels in 2014 and then ended up paying the bill in full minus the British rebate.

Also they argued that britain will be forced to contribute to the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism to pay bridging finance to Greece which was set up in 2015, despite promises it would be excluded.

Speaking ahead of the rally today, the former London Mayor, Mr Johnson said: "The risks of remain are massive.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/677056/Cameron-PM-blasted-SECRET-2bn-EU-bill-REVEALED

And you watch the remain lot give this piece of vital information a swerve, just like they gave the other quote about civil unrest a swerve.

 

[One Love]

And you watch the remain lot give this piece of vital information a swerve, just like they gave the other quote about civil unrest a swerve.

I am happy to look at most information available but draw the line at that source.

 

[Hampster Gull]

There's no way the Finns, Dutch or Germans will agree to wealth transfer to the 'lazy' southern states. Also, it's against the German constitution, so would need a referendum there. AfD is gaining in the polls there, so Fiscal Union is so far in the future as irrelevant (in the time context of Greece, Italy etc.).

Ok Nostradamus

 

[Soulman]

I am happy to look at most information available but draw the line at that source.

Shall we see after the 23rd if the Remain vote wins. I believe a lot will come out post referendum, if it's IN, Dave's "deals" will go straight down the Rhine.

 

[melias shoes]

Another poll indicating a Brexit lead. This one from the guardian.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium

 

[Two Professors]

More corrupt than Westminster? How many of our MPs fiddled their expenses? Many of them are still at it. Cash for questions. Knighthoods for political donations? They are ALL at it! It's totally depressing, but EU politicians do not have a monopoly on corruption.

More corrupt on a much more massive scale.In fact corruption to the tune of £670 million last year,non-recoverable according to the EU's OLAF fraud agency.Don't think even our MP's can fiddle that in a year.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Surely we HAVE to weigh up the consequences of our vote. Not to do so would be madness. Some of the things I'm concerned about post-Brexit (if that's the outcome) are:

- The break-up of the UK (Scotland - and possibly Northern Ireland) voting to leave the UK;
- Re-igniting sectarianism in Northern Ireland;
- The gradual break-up of the EU, leading to massive political instability in Europe, capitalised upon by an expansionist Russia;
- England & Wales governed by a far right amalgam of Farage, Gove and Johnson;

Of course none of these things may happen, but they're all more likely is we Vote Leave.

Surely we HAVE to weigh up the consequences of our vote. Not to do so would be madness. Some of the things I'm concerned about post-Remain (if that's the outcome) are:

- How do we build and fund enough houses to clear the existing huge shortage and cope with the current and projected rates of net inward immigration when money is tight. One estimate at least 240 houses a day for 20 years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36262372 http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/key-topics/housing

- How do we plan for the right amount of schools and prevent class sizes rising as they are now, effecting our children's education because we can't control 50% of inward migration. (Immigration being the main driver of population growth.) 100 new primary schools needed just for one years EEA migration.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36260947 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/07/migration-pressure-on-schools-revealed/ http://www.theguardian.com/education/2012/mar/19/primary-schools-shortage-places-labour

- Same for the NHS and numerous other services.

Of course all these things have happened and are happening today and definitely will continue to happen if we Vote Remain.

Other concerns would include.

- How do we successfully integrate people when the rate and number are unprecedented when we don't have full control.

- How can we prevent the rise of more extreme parties if the main parties won't address rates of immigration concerns. Will we end up more like mainland Europe

- How do we reform Europe more to our liking (more freetrade less regulation/ever closer union) when the Eurozone countries have an inbuilt majority.

- What happens when the next batch of accession countries join including Turkey, all poorer than us.

- Who pays for the Euro crisis bailouts.

 

[pastafarian]

Surely we HAVE to weigh up the consequences of our vote. Not to do so would be madness. Some of the things I'm concerned about post-Brexit (if that's the outcome) are:

- The break-up of the UK (Scotland - and possibly Northern Ireland) voting to leave the UK;
- Re-igniting sectarianism in Northern Ireland;
- The gradual break-up of the EU, leading to massive political instability in Europe, capitalised upon by an expansionist Russia;
- England & Wales governed by a far right amalgam of Farage, Gove and Johnson;

Of course none of these things may happen, but they're all more likely is we Vote Leave.

the biggest problem you have here is thinking that Farage Gove and Johnson are far right.
there are real far right groups across Europe with some very worrying agendas.....these three are nowhere near coming close to even being mentioned as similar.

 

[One Love]

I see the press have started up on Farage again, we have been here before many times, and usually it ends up with Farage getting more support.

Like the last time when he blew a safe seat?

 

[One Love]

Another poll indicating a Brexit lead. This one from the guardian.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/04/poll-eu-brexit-lead-opinium

The exchanges are on about 1.40 which is more of a reliable indicator.

If this gets near 2.0 then it's time to panic.

 

[larus]

Ok Nostradamus

OK Einstein. Please elaborate on how you see these 3 counties accepting fiscal transfers. I presume, based on your bold statement that you see fiscal Union as happening, you must have read a lot of financial articles which point to this happening. And you can also predict the outcome of a referendum (which would be needed in Germany) to allow this to happen there. And this would also happen within a timescale which will save the EURO.

Or, is it just another one of your hunches because you guessed the last election result?